Recent significant increases in RAM prices are expected to negatively impact the smartphone market in the coming months. Analyst firm Counterpoint has revised its 2026 forecast, now predicting a 2.1% decline in global smartphone shipments rather than stable growth.
Counterpoint further warns that memory prices may rise by an additional 40% through the second quarter of 2026, exacerbating challenges for manufacturers.
Global Smartphone Market Share and Year-over-Year Growth by Key OEM, 2026 (Estimated)Currently, the Bill of Materials (BoM) for low-end smartphones is 25% higher compared to the start of the year. Mid-range and high-end devices have experienced respective BoM increases of 15% and 10%. Should the forecast hold, these costs could rise an additional 8% to 15% by mid-2026.
Counterpoint expects shipment declines across all major brands. While Oppo and vivo were previously anticipated to grow shipments, the latest outlook predicts a downturn. Xiaomi and Honor face even steeper reductions than initially expected.
Leading manufacturers Apple and Samsung will also experience impacts, though to a lesser extent. Senior Analyst Yang Wang notes, “Apple and Samsung are best positioned to weather the next few quarters. However, others with less flexibility will struggle to balance market share and profit margins. This dynamic will be especially evident among Chinese OEMs as the year progresses.”
Smartphone Shipment Year-over-Year Growth Forecasts and Revisions for 2026Manufacturers are already adapting by restructuring product lines and reducing specifications. Senior Analyst Shenghao Bai comments, “Some models are seeing component downgrades including camera modules, periscope lenses, displays, audio parts, and memory configurations.”
Analysts also predict that the average selling price (ASP) for smartphones in 2026 will rise more sharply than before: from an original forecast of +3.9% to a new estimate of +6.9%. This suggests manufacturers will encourage consumers to opt for premium models, which are less affected by RAM cost increases due to RAM constituting a smaller portion of their BoM.
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